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BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (BXMT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue rose 18.6% year over year to $133.6M, a clear beat versus Wall Street consensus, while Primary EPS (Distributable EPS) missed modestly; GAAP EPS was $0.37, Distributable EPS was $0.24, and Distributable EPS prior to charge-offs was $0.48, covering the $0.47 dividend . EPS and revenue estimates context below (S&P Global).*
  • Credit improved: 96% of the loan portfolio is performing, no new impaired loans, and $0.4B of impaired loans were resolved above aggregate carrying value; CECL reserves declined to $712M (3.9% of principal), supporting book value per share of $20.99 .
  • Investment/capital: $1.0B of total investments ($0.6B originations; $0.3B share in a bank loan portfolio JV; $0.1B net lease JV), with >9% levered spreads on new originations and an additional $1.7B in closing post-quarter; liquidity $1.3B; debt-to-equity 3.5x; repriced $400M Term Loan B down 100 bps .
  • Capital returns/catalysts: BXMT repurchased $77M YTD into Q3 and another $61M in early Q4 at discounts to book; management expects to close over $7B of new investments in 2025, setting up further earnings redeployment as resolutions continue .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Distributable earnings prior to charge-offs of $0.48 per share, covering the $0.47 dividend and continuing this year’s positive trajectory” .
  • Portfolio performance improved to 96% performing with no new impaired loans; eight loan upgrades (six in office) and $0.4B of impaired loan resolutions above carrying value .
  • Balance sheet optimization: repriced and upsized $0.4B Term Loan B, cutting spread by 100 bps; liquidity remains strong at $1.3B and debt-to-equity sits at 3.5x .

What Went Wrong

  • Primary EPS (Distributable EPS) missed consensus in Q3 (actual $0.24 vs estimate $0.274*) due to realized losses from two loan resolutions; DE prior to charge-offs ($0.48) did cover the dividend .*
  • Elevated REO activity: revenue from real estate owned increased, but so did REO expenses ($43.1M in Q3), creating variability in near-term earnings composition .
  • Some earnings still locked in impaired loans/REO under cost recovery: $0.06 of interest from impaired loans excluded from DE this quarter; management emphasized redeployment as the path to sustainable coverage .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Net Revenues ($USD)$111.951M $126.947M $133.853M $132.711M
GAAP Net Income ($USD)($55.844M) ($0.351M) $6.984M $63.408M
GAAP EPS ($USD)($0.32) ($0.00) $0.04 $0.37
Distributable EPS ($USD)—$0.17 $0.19 $0.24
Distributable EPS prior to charge-offs ($USD)—$0.42 $0.45 $0.48
Dividend per Share ($USD)—$0.47 $0.47 $0.47
Revenue from Real Estate Owned ($USD)$1.214M $37.033M $38.812M $33.733M
Interest & Related Income ($USD)$430.092M $332.057M $359.537M $345.959M
Interest & Related Expenses ($USD)$321.744M $242.233M $264.727M $247.055M

Margins

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Income Margin %-0.46%*7.92%*47.44%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment/Portfolio Composition

Collateral Type (% of Portfolio)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Multifamily30% 27% 25%
US Office21% 20% 22%
Non-US Office8% 8% 7%
Industrial14% 18% 21%
Hospitality15% 15% 12%
Retail3% 4% 4%
Self-Storage3% 3% 3%
Life Sciences / Studio2% 1% 2%
Other Property4% 4% 4%

Key KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Performing Portfolio (%)95% 94% 96%
Impaired Loan Resolutions ($)$0.4B $0.2B $0.4B
CECL Reserve ($)$741.5M $755.0M $712.0M
CECL Reserve (% of Principal)3.9% 3.8% 3.9%
Originations ($)$1.6B $2.2B $0.6B
Total Investments ($)—$2.6B $1.0B
Repayments ($)$1.8B $1.6B $1.6B
Liquidity ($)$1.6B $1.1B $1.3B
Debt-to-Equity (x)3.4x 3.8x 3.5x
Book Value per Share ($)$21.42 $21.04 $20.99

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per ShareQ3 2025$0.47 (Q2) $0.47 (Q3) Maintained
Investment Activity (FY 2025)FY 2025Not specified“Expect to close over $7B of new investments this year” Introduced/raised activity outlook
Debt-to-Equity TargetOngoingMid-3s indicated; 3.4x at Q1 3.5x at Q3, target mid-3s reiterated Maintained
Corporate Term Loan B SpreadQ2 vs Q3-65 bps on $1.0B TL B (Q2) Additional -100 bps on $0.4B TL B (Q3) Lowered cost further
Revenue/EPS GuidanceQ3 2025None providedNone provided—
Tax Rate GuidanceQ3 2025None providedNone provided—

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI-driven San Francisco recoveryNot highlighted in Q1; limited in Q2“In San Francisco… Multifamily rents up 10%, office demand growing, convention bookings up 60%” Improving demand in Bay Area (tailwind)
Liquidity/CMBS marketStrong liquidity, CLO issuance; robust originations (Q2) SASB CMBS tracking toward record issuance; capital markets supportive Broadening liquidity; cost of capital improving
Net lease strategyLaunched in Q1 (27 properties) Expanded to $222M and added $90M in Q3; pipeline +$100M Scaling, diversifying earnings duration
Bank loan portfoliosEntered JV in Q2; $0.4B share at discount $0.3B Q3 share at discount; high barriers to entry Continued thematic deployment
Office fundamentals/reservesOffice exposure declining; resolutions above carrying Six office upgrades; one impaired office sold post quarter; reserves viewed appropriate Stabilizing with green shoots
Tariffs/macro timingNoted spring volatility impacting timing in Q2 Q3 deployment robust; pipeline $1.7B in closing Normalizing activity cadence
Buybacks vs originations$32M repurchased in Q1 ; no call in Q2Dynamic approach; repurchased $16M in Q3 and $61M in early Q4 at lower prices Opportunistic capital return continues
Portfolio performance/resolutionsPerforming 95% (Q1), 94% (Q2); resolutions above carrying Performing 96%; $0.4B resolutions above carrying; no new impaired loans Positive trajectory sustained

Management Commentary

  • Katie Keenan (CEO): “Distributable earnings prior to charge-offs of $0.48 per share, covering the $0.47 dividend… Book value was essentially flat, reflecting a stable credit backdrop with no new impaired loans” .
  • Austin Peña (EVP Investments): “We continue to achieve… a levered spread of more than 9% over base rates… average LTV of 67%” and “our loan portfolio is now 96% performing” .
  • Tony Marone (CFO): “We repriced $400 million of corporate term loan during the quarter, reducing spread by 100 basis points… Book value of $20.99 per share… CECL reserves… declined from $755 million to $712 million” .
  • Tim Johnson (Incoming CEO): “Liquidity has returned… a bit stronger in the U.S.… CMBS tracking toward an all-time high… We continue to look across regions and play relative value” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Liquidity and regional mix: Management sees stronger relative liquidity in the U.S. CMBS market but continues to allocate based on relative value across U.S. and Europe .
  • REO/earnings uplift: REO assets are not at target returns; management expects earnings uplift as capital is redeployed; no significant incremental CapEx needs expected given strong liquidity .
  • Buybacks vs originations: Share repurchases and originations evaluated dynamically; active buybacks when returns are attractive relative to book .
  • Duration/interest-rate sensitivity: Net lease and bank portfolios add duration and hedge floating-rate exposure; bank loans acquired at discounts provide convexity .
  • Dividend coverage and levers: DE prior to charge-offs covered the dividend; key lever is unlocking earnings from impaired loans/REO through resolutions and redeployment; only ~150 bps asset sensitivity to rate moves .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 Primary EPS Consensus Mean vs Actual Distributable EPS: 0.27427* vs 0.24 (miss). Management noted realized losses on two loan resolutions as the driver; DE prior to charge-offs was $0.48, covering the $0.47 dividend .*
  • Q3 2025 Revenue Consensus Mean vs Actual Total Net Revenues: $99.788M* vs $132.711M (beat), driven by higher net revenues including REO revenue and net interest .*
  • Implication: Street likely under-modeled the contribution/variability from REO and resolution timing; models should reflect continued redeployment, lower funding costs, and performing portfolio improvements.*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Estimates vs Actuals

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean0.28*0.26407*0.27427*
Primary EPS Actual (DE per share)0.17 0.19 0.24
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$107.233M*$95.326M*$99.788M*
Revenue Actual ($USD)$126.947M $133.853M $132.711M
Primary EPS – # of Estimates4*7*7*
Revenue – # of Estimates5*5*5*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue beat with strong YoY growth; EPS miss was largely due to realized losses on resolutions—DE prior to charge-offs covered the dividend, underscoring underlying earnings power .*
  • Credit continues to inflect positively: 96% performing, no new impaired loans, and CECL reserves down with resolutions above carrying values—supporting book value .
  • Deployment engine is active across channels (originations, bank portfolios at discounts, net lease), with >9% levered spreads and $1.7B in closing, suggesting momentum into Q4 .
  • Cost of capital tailwinds: corporate term loan repricing (-100 bps) and tighter asset-level funding; further financing optimization could enhance returns .
  • Buybacks at a discount to book provide accretive capital return and potential support for valuation while the portfolio mix shifts toward higher-quality current-vintage assets .
  • Watch for additional impaired loan resolutions and REO exits—management flagged more resolutions next quarter—which can unlock earnings and reduce reserve intensity .
  • Medium term: Expect continued rotation toward multifamily/industrial, scaling net lease/portfolio acquisitions, and a supportive CMBS/CLO backdrop; trajectory should improve as redeployment replaces lower-return REO/impaired assets .

Appendices and Notes

  • Q3 2025 8-K press release and presentation read in full; Q3 2025 earnings call transcript read in full .
  • Prior quarters reviewed: Q2 2025 8-K press release and presentation; Q1 2025 8-K press release and presentation .
  • No additional BXMT company press releases found for Q3 2025 beyond the 8-K press release in the document catalog search window .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*